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The ‘society’ Category

The Future of TV Confounds The Pundits

Monday, April 5th, 2010

This kind of thinking can not continue – This isn’t just about pay TV – the whole industry is at stake because of this kind of thinking – The Collapse of Complex Business Models.

TV and cable production companies as well as high-end video production houses et al, especially TV production companies steeped in old model bureaucracy and entrenched in their ways, will never be able to compete with the low-barrier-to-entry-Internet until they change their internal cultures. Here’s why from Clay Shirky:

In spring of 2007, the web video comedy In the Motherhood made the move to TV. In the Motherhood started online as a series of short videos, with viewers contributing funny stories from their own lives and voting on their favorites. This tactic generated good ideas at low cost as well as endearing the show to its viewers; the show’s tag line was “By Moms, For Moms, About Moms.”

The move to TV was an affirmation of this technique; when ABC launched the public forum for the new TV version, they told users their input “might just become inspiration for a story by the writers.

Or it might not. Once the show moved to television, the Writers Guild of America got involved. They were OK with For and About Moms, but By Moms violated Guild rules. The producers tried to negotiate, to no avail, so the idea of audience engagement was canned (as was In the Motherhood itself some months later, after failing to engage viewers as the web version had).

The critical fact about this negotiation wasn’t about the mothers, or their stories, or how those stories might be used. The critical fact was that the negotiation took place in the grid of the television industry, between entities incorporated around a 20th century business logic, and entirely within invented constraints. At no point did the negotiation about audience involvement hinge on the question “Would this be an interesting thing to try?”

Here is the answer to that question from the TV executives.

In the future, at least some methods of producing video for the web will become as complex, with as many details to attend to, as television has today, and people will doubtless make pots of money on those forms of production. It’s tempting, at least for the people benefitting from the old complexity, to imagine that if things used to be complex, and they’re going to be complex, then everything can just stay complex in the meantime. That’s not how it works, however.

The most watched minute of video made in the last five years shows baby Charlie biting his brother’s finger. (Twice!) That minute has been watched by more people than the viewership of American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, and the Superbowl combined. (174 million views and counting.)

Collapse Is Simply The Last Remaining Method of Simplification

Friday, April 2nd, 2010

Clay Shirky Fight Portland
Clay Shirky

We are very lucky to have Clay Shirky amongst us as he brings an incredible knack for being able to explain, very simply, seemingly complex problems in the digital arena. His latest post, The Collapse of Complex Business Models, covers his thoughts on the transition to the web for TV companies and producers. Before addressing their concerns he takes a moment to reflect upon Joseph Tainter‘s book, The Collapse of Complex Societies where Tainter looked at several ancient, sophisticated societies that suddenly collapsed. As it turns out, it was bureaucracy that ruined those societies – “In such systems, there is no way to make things a little bit simpler – the whole edifice becomes a huge, interlocking system not readily amenable to change.”

He then turns to the TV producers, news content providers and their issues with the web:

About 15 years ago, the supply part of media’s supply-and-demand curve went parabolic, with a predictably inverse effect on price. Since then, a battalion of media elites have lined up to declare that exactly the opposite thing will start happening any day now.

To pick a couple of examples more or less at random, last year Barry Diller of IAC said, of content available on the web, “It is not free, and is not going to be,” Steve Brill of Journalism Online said that users “just need to get back into the habit of doing so [paying for content] online”, and Rupert Murdoch of News Corp said “Web users will have to pay for what they watch and use.” Diller, Brill, and Murdoch seem be stating a simple fact—we will have to pay them—but this fact is not in fact a fact. Instead, it is a choice, one its proponents often decline to spell out in full, because, spelled out in full, it would read something like this:

Web users will have to pay for what they watch and use, or else we will have to stop making content in the costly and complex way we have grown accustomed to making it. And we don’t know how to do that.”

No One Has The Right To Live Without Being Shocked

Thursday, April 1st, 2010

Philip Pullman on freedom of speech and his new book – The Good Man Jesus and the Scoundrel Christ.

Hat tip to Len Kendall.

How Mobile Phones Are Changing Social Media

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

Resh Sidhu Flowtown Infographic
Click on image for full size view.

I came across this infographic via Interactive Art Director, Resh Sidu, who had posted it to her blog. Hat tip to @simonmainwaring for tweeting it up.

Resh points out an interesting stat: “25% or more than 100 million Facebook users access from a mobile phone, and those who do, are twice as active on social networks compared to people accessing from a computer. The 35-54 year old bracket is the most active mobile social users, bet some of your clients wouldn’t have expected that.”

Social Networks, Privacy and The New Obscurity

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

Danah Boyd Privacy Fight SXSWi

Very briefly here are a few things I learned at this year’s SXSWi Conference – 1. SXSWi may have already jumped the shark. This year the conference appeared to be packed with people who felt that they had to be there or that the idea of a once-a-year party was too much to pass up. No other reason. 2. Many panelists forgot that being on a panel requires being prepared and that they are there to share their wisdom, or at the very least entertain us. [The NYT columnist David Carr also mentioned this lack of sparkle.] 3. The biggest buzz was which new platform would be this year’s Twitter. I mean c’mon people… 4. Geeks live in a bubble and SXSWi provides the biggest bubble of all. 5. Judging by the overuse of Foursquare and Gowalla, conference attendees do not have any privacy concerns, or perhaps they are happy with the idea that “privacy is dead.”

I’ve written often of our anthropological need to stay in touch with friends and family, and that technology merely shortens the distance between us. What I am now interested in is how to handle living in public while attempting to hold on to my privacy. And while I’m at it, I thought I’d take a look at the numbers game that occurs in social networking and how that relates to the quality of friends and followers, versus quantity.

Let’s start with privacy. During SXSWi Foursquare use was rampant, I was getting literally hundreds of Foursquare updates a day from people I follow on Twitter. It became incredibly annoying because a message like this – “I’m at Mohawk, 722 Red River, Austin TX with 171 others” – is of no importance to me as it lacks context. Ok, so it could be argued that the message conveys a trending topic of where SXSWi attendees are gathering, which may be useful to some, but I expected that everyone would be at the Mohawk at some time during the conference. Why wouldn’t they? Free food and drink always succeeds in creating lines around blocks.

But, all sarcasm aside, I like what Chris Conrey has to say about the phenomenon of sharing our whereabouts. In his post titled, Why I Deleted Foursquare and Gowalla After SXSW, he says: “I don’t see the value to the end user in these things. What I do see is a huge data mine for marketers, advertisers and stalkers to glean for information.” As for worrying about stalkers, thankfully there’s always PleaseRobMe.com to help folks begin to understand that privacy is, on the whole, a good thing.

As Chris points out, our real friends would let us know their whereabouts via Twitter, text or IM if they wanted to really share that info with people they care about. And they would also supply context, as in its definition – the set of facts or circumstances that surround a situation or event. In other words, “I’m down at the Coach and Horses having a drink with Charlie, and Anne and Pete will join us later…” That’s a little more personal than “with 171 others..” It’s also a private message.

@simonmainwaring
“In life, private by default, public by effort is normal. In social media its the opposite.” #SXSW #danahboyd

That sentence, posted to Twitter by Simon Mainwaring, is an excerpt from a keynote speech that danah boyd, [she uses only lowercase letters in her name,] a Social Media Researcher at Microsoft Research New England and a Fellow at Harvard University’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, gave at the 2010 SXSWi Conference.

She also said “Privacy isn’t hiding, it’s control.” Here’s a crib of her entire speech at SXSW, here’s her blog and this is her message to Google’s Eric Schmidt:

DEAR ERIC SCHMIDT, PRIVACY IS NOT DEAD. KTHXBY.

And she continues: “No matter how many times a privileged straight white male technology executive pronounces the death of privacy, Privacy Is Not Dead. People of all ages care deeply about privacy. And they care just as much about privacy online as they do offline. But what privacy means may not be what you think.

Fundamentally, privacy is about having control over how information flows. It’s about being able to understand the social setting in order to behave appropriately. To do so, people must trust their interpretation of the context, including the people in the room and the architecture that defines the setting. When they feel as though control has been taken away from them or when they lack the control they need to do the right thing, they scream privacy foul.”

Privacy foul? Google Buzz anyone..?

The Quantity of Your Friends and Followers Versus the Quality; It’s A Numbers Game.

So, if the idea of social networks is to further conversation, then the problem is in the numbers game. I mean, how often do we see this on Twitter? – “hey tweeps, I’m almost at 9,950 followers help me get to 10k by end of day.” The first question I would ask would be, why do you want to achieve a certain number of followers? The second would be, how on earth will you have a true conversation with 10k+ followers? Arguably the answer to the first question is “look at me, aren’t I so special” and to the second, there is no way one can have a meaningful relationship or conversation with that many people.

Which brings us to Dunbar’s Number. From Wikipedia: “Dunbar’s number is a theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person. Proponents assert that numbers larger than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a stable, cohesive group. No precise value has been proposed for Dunbar’s number, but a commonly cited approximation is 150.”

That’s 150 people. As in your family, kin and all other close friends. Dunbar points out that it’s difficult to compare the quality of relationships versus the outcome of the relationship, but he says the time invested in relationships is directly related to the improvement of quality in those relationships. As you add more friends beyond the 150 he says that its akin to dropping a pebble in a pond and watching the ripples fan out across the surface. Each ripple represents a layer of relationships that are of a significantly lower quality than the initial 150. Oddly the layers scale in a consistent pattern of 10, 20, 100 etc, so when it comes to social networks he argues that any messaging or traffic really only speaks to the inner core [those 150] just like in offline relationships.

[Robin Dunbar is working on a study of Facebook and MySpace to be published later in 2010.] Watch a video of Dunbar’s talk to the RSC in London – How Many Friends Does One Person Need?

Clive Thompson’s article in the February 2010 edition of Wired Magazine, In Praise of Obscurity, also discusses social network users and their followers, where he wrote of the problem of follower scale – “…at a few hundred or a few thousand followers, they’re having fun – but any bigger and it falls apart. Social media stops being social. It’s no longer a bantering process of thinking and living out loud. It becomes old fashioned broadcasting.

So much for “earned media” then, we’ve unwittingly come full circle back to mass messaging. And the lesson?

He suggests: “There’s value in obscurity. After all, the world’s bravest and most important ideas are often forged away from the spotlight — in small, obscure groups of people who are passionately interested in a subject and like arguing about it. They’re willing to experiment with risky or dumb concepts because they’re among intimates. [It was, after all, small groups of marginal weirdos that brought us the computer, democracy, and the novel.]“

Which brings me back to SXSWi – the most interesting conversations that I had were either in the back channel, at dinner, or over drinks well away from the conference centre and often well away from downtown Austin and the party action. Here in Portland, at a recent dinner hosted by Intel’s Bryan Rhoads, I had a great discussion with him, W+K’s Renny Gleeson, China expert, Sam Flemming, Webtrends’ Justin Kistner and others, where, to use danah boyd’s phrase “context in environment,” the people in the room and the architecture defined the setting and therefore the conversation. The evening was a true social networking event. Context in these situations is when you can look someone in the eye and note their body language, things that help you interact and converse.

So, when do we back out of the Social Web, dump most of our Facebook “friends,” and relegate ourselves to one really good and useful Tweet a day, or one insightful blog post? Or should I say, when do we stop airing our dirty laundry while living in public..? As danah boyd said at SXSWi “In life, private by default, public by effort is normal. In social media its the opposite.”

As of the time of writing this post I currently have 6312 followers of @Pampelmoose and 842 followers of @DaveAtFight on Twitter. On Facebook I have 2,376 “friends.” My blog gets more than 250k unique visits a month. That’s a lot of “friends..”

WIll you continue using social networks and building up your friends and followers numbers? Are you happy sharing your personal data with 3rd party corporations? Or is 150 friends quite enough and does relative obscurity sound appealing?

We Are All Distracted

Monday, March 8th, 2010

Iterative Marketing Fight Portland
The 11,500 year old Gobekli Tepe temple near Sanliurfa, Turkey. [photo: Berthold Steinhilber]

Civilization is revving itself into a pathologically short attention span. The trend might be coming from the acceleration of technology, the short-horizon perspective of market-driven economics, the next-election perspective of democracies, or the distractions of personal multi-tasking. All are on the increase.” – The Long Now Foundation.

We no longer consider the future. We apparently don’t have time for that. The Long Now Foundation and its 10,000 Year Clock project should at least make us find the time to again consider the future.

As Michael Chabon wrote about the Clock in his wonderful book of essays, Manhood For Amateurs, “…the Clock may accomplish its greatest task before it is ever finished, perhaps without ever being built at all. The point of the Clock Of The Long Now is not to measure out the passage into their unknown future of the race of creatures that built it. The point of the Clock is to revive and restore the whole idea of the Future, to get us thinking about the Future again, to the same degree we used to, if not in quite the same way, and to reintroduce the idea that we don’t just bequeath the future – though we do, whether we think about it or not.”

The Long Now Fight Portland

How many of us even consider the future of 500 years from now, of only about 6 future generations of our families from today? And then consider 10,000 years. As Chabon points out, that’s about as long a time span as separates us from the first makers of pottery….11,500 years ago some people built the Gobekli Tepe temple near Sanliurfa, Turkey.

We all have, and have had, the future in our hands – just yesterday for instance – yet by definition the future doesn’t exist. Some of you reading this post, when you consider technology and how we now expect new developments in technology to bring us the “future,” may consider the iPad the future; it’s coming soon after all. And with that example, let’s consider the outpouring of rage from the Flash developer community over the iPad’s lack of Flash… they chose to ignore that the iPad will change the way people interact with computers in the future, instead they got all hysterical over the lack of a multimedia platform on the device; short term thinking in other words.

It’s interesting to note that one of the Long Now’s founding board members, Brian Eno, seemed to suggest that the lack of long term future thinking was an American problem. When he moved to New York City, he found that “here” and “now” meant “this room” and “this five minutes” as opposed to the larger here and longer now that he was used to in England. Because of that, he wanted the Long Now foundation to focus on stretching out what people consider as now.

I’m not sure what year it was when Eno considered the “here and now” issue, but I don’t actually believe it’s an American problem, it’s a global problem. We can see it when humans get all worked up about saving the Earth, without realizing that humans haven’t been on Earth long enough for the planet to care. We may or may not be destroying the atmosphere via global warming, but either way, when the Earth is truly done with us it will rid itself of us. We may not be around to witness the Clock Of The Long Now in 10,000 years; we need to be ok with that.

Here’s the Long Now guidelines for a long-lived, long-valuable institution:

Serve the long view
Foster responsibility
Reward patience
Mine mythic depth
Ally with competition
Take no sides
Leverage longevity

And here’s some food for thought; the Future, as considered over just the last few decades, was not all shiny bright advances in technology that improved our lives. It also brought the fear of Armageddon, of destruction by nuclear weapons. Chabon again – “…the Future…can be unremittingly and wryly bleak..”

Design War – Down With Corporate America

Saturday, February 27th, 2010

“If one factors in all the world wars, diseases, poverty, illiteracy, and natural disasters, a well-designed hangtag is silly. But I don’t think the responsibility for the visual environment of our society is silly or trivial, and collectively, that is our charge.”Paula Scher: “The Devaluation of Design by the Design Community: I Have Seen the Enemy and He Is Us”

“Designers who win awards for edgy design they did for a friend’s business, with a print run of one hundred or something like that? They’ve got no art director, no creative director, no client’s representative, no agency person. Where’s the obstacle to good design there? But take something like a cheese. When I see a really good package for a cheese, I know what that designer went through to get there. It makes me want to fall on my knees and kiss that designer’s feet, that cheese.” – Ernesto Aparicio.

An interview by Paula Scher with Josh Berta of Pr*tty Sh*tty:

Scher: I use a couple quotes of yours to sum up some of my own motivations and philosophy behind this blog. When I contacted you about this interview, you said those quotes were never more true than now. Why is that?

Berta: Many talented young designers today have abandoned their roles as improvers of the general visual environment. Many only want to work on cultural work, or not-for-profit work, or on projects they perceive as “good-for-society” which may have a high profile within the design milieu, but don’t really reach ordinary people. These designers are afraid to get involved in mainstream packaging, promotion or corporate work. They forget that these are the products and messages that most people really encounter in their daily lives, that these products and services are at the heart of the American condition, and that there is responsibility for us as designers, always, to raise the expectation of what design can be. We are responsible for that daily experience. These “ivory tower designers” leave the job to others (ad agencies, schlock shops, etc.) who are simply doing it for the money, and are often cynical about the outcome.

Scher: What do you think has perpetuated that pattern?

Berta: I think the design community has caused it. The “First Things First” manifesto inspired a lot of young people to move away from corporate branding, advertising, promotion, packaging (except for books and magazines, as if they are somehow more noble). If “responsible” designers who care about society and our environment refuse to work on branding, advertising, promotion and packaging, then just consider, who will? This line of design-thinking has been perpetuated in so many design schools and grad programs and it is perpetuated by the AIGA and other design organizations. It’s easy to inspire young designers this way as it creates a real calling for them: “down with corporate America”, etc.

But, ultimately, it creates a design society where it is OK for designers to
abandon most of American communication.
Good God!

Read the rest of this interview here.

The Coast of Dystopia

Monday, January 18th, 2010

Dystopia California Fight Portland
Adam Bartos/Yossi Milo Gallery, New York

“…. in California, rather than having this fantastic notion of what could be, people are now just trying to hang on. It’s such a lowering of ambition and expectation.” – Sam Green.

The Coast of Dystopia.

Sam Green’s, Utopia In Four Movements

Rishad Tobaccowala – Future Moves

Sunday, January 17th, 2010

Late last year I had the distinct pleasure of hearing Rishad Tobaccowala and Simon Mainwaring give a talk to some of Deb Morrison‘s students at the University of Oregon’s White Stag building in Portland, Or. Rishad has a way of explaining himself so thoroughly and incisively that he left me feeling like I was in 3rd grade..

This weekend, I came across an article, Future Moves, that he had written for the Economic Times of India. As usual he has some interesting insights into what we might call our digital future and how it will align with our analog existence. Here’s a couple of his thoughts below. Read the whole article here. I also recommend checking out Denuology.

REAL TIME SOCIAL PLATFORMS

SMS which is still the world’s most used communication medium is a social platform. But with 350 million Facebook users, tens of millions Twitter users and a range of local and international innovations (Google real time search) that combine real time and social we are going to see an explosion in the impact of both word of mouth and real time information . For instance in many ways the best way to keep abreast of the 11/9 terror in Mumbai was twitter and real time live streams. Expect every media company and consumer brand to invest in real time listening and response in 2010.

THE RISE OF THE POST DIGITAL WORLD

The world is going increasingly digital but a) the majority of media and marketing is analog and b) people are analog. Thus it is wrong to become overly hysterical even in advanced digital penetration countries by screaming about “digital at the core” ! What is important is people and their needs and passions at the core and most of us combine the real and virtual worlds in ways that allow us to connect, save money and time and pursue our passions. We use mobile tools to have real world meetings and we enhance real world occasions with digital augmentation. Just like Walmart stores are paying a lot of attention to digital capabilities one can expect digital companies like Amazon to have analog or real world presence . Today besides Kindle you will see Amazon stores and maybe even book stores just like Apple has its online store and its real stores.

News Institutions Moving Toward the Social Web – Slowly

Sunday, January 10th, 2010

In his post ‘News Orgs Take Social Media Seriously by Hiring Editors to Oversee Efforts‘ Sree Sreenivasan notes …”with interest the rise in the number of journalists with the title of social media editor (or something similar) within news organizations. This signals how seriously media outlets are taking social media, thinking about it strategically and incorporating it into workflows and overall output.”

While this may be true, there are still internal institutional hurdles to get over as noted in this succinct comment on Sreenivasa’s post:
Social Media News Organizations Sree Sreenivasan